Economist for Assessing Impacts
of New Macroeconomic Policies
on the Micro Economy

Relevant Experience:

 The consultant should have minimum of 15 years of relevant professional experience, including several years in an advisory role in policy formulation and implementation with academia or Government or other development agencies. Experience in macroeconomic policy and management and advanced quantitative analysis will be preferred.

Rationale and Objective of the Assignment:

Under the workplan for July 2019 to June 2020, procurement plan has been approved for an individual consultancy under Activity 7: Micro Economist for conducting research study titled “Assessing Impacts of New Macroeconomic Policies on the Micro Economy” and preparing 2 policy briefs.

Key objective of the research study is to determine and analyse impacts of Government of Pakistan’s macroeconomic policies on aspects of microeconomy at the poor and ultra-poor household (HH) and community levels. The study is interested in determining and analysing impacts of changes in macroeconomic variables, on costs of basic HH needs in National Poverty Graduation Programme’s (NPGP) beneficiary communities, on their earning, spending, consumption, and borrowing patterns, and on the economic returns for them from NPGP interventions. In view of these impacts, the study is also interested in determining and analysing ability of target HHs to survive economic shifts and sustainably graduate out of poverty with NPGP intervention.

This study will assist NPGP in understanding how macroeconomic factors guide target HHs’ socioeconomic environments, their preferences, and thus their ability to graduate out of poverty through community mobilization, assets, interest free loans, and training received from the programme. In doing so, the study will establish prospects for the sustainability of NPGP’s impact on socioeconomic wellbeing of beneficiary HHs.

Scope of Work:

1. Prepare comprehensive methodology, in close conjunction with NPGP and Monitoring, Evaluation and Research (MER) Units, including literature review on nationwide macroeconomic shifts.
2. Determine and analyse impacts of macroeconomic shifts on costs of basic needs of target HHs. 
3. Determine and analyse impacts of macroeconomic shifts on NPGP HHs’ socioeconomic wellbeing and financial inclusion at the microeconomic level in terms of their access to earning opportunities, wages, patterns of spending on HH goods and services, poverty dynamics, and income disparity, among others.
4. Determine and analyse how these macroeconomic shifts impact urban and rural HHs and communities differently.
5. Create econometric model(s) to serve as predictors of macroeconomic shifts, of their impacts on microeconomy of target HHs, and of grassroots impacts on the demand and efficacy of NPGP interventions.
6. Explore impacts of macroeconomic shifts on various gender dynamics and on wellbeing of women at target HH levels.
7. Explore impacts of macroeconomic shifts on various youth employability dynamics, including their skillsets, market demand for those skills, and youth’s ability to respond to this demand, among others.
8. Project potential policy and programmatic changes by Government of Pakistan, which may be conducive to such macroeconomic shifts which can optimize NPGP’s sustainable poverty graduation impact.

Deliverables              

1. Inception report with detailed methodology, research tools, and field work plan, if required.
2. Draft study report (containing data modelling and write-up analysis) and policy briefs for review of concerned units for feedback.
3. Final study report and policy briefs with incorporation of feedback to ensure compliance with donor requirement. 

Duration:

4 Months

Education
Must	Degree	Degree Level	Country	Description
	M.Phil/PhD	MPhil	Pakistan	Consultant should have M Phil/PhD. in Economics or equivalent

Skills
Must	Title	Level	Description
	Quantitative Analysis Skills	Excellent	advanced quantitative analysis